국제통화기금(International Monetary Fund:IMF)에서 발행한 올해 8월자

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Contents                                                                                         Page
Executive Summary ................................................................................3
I. Introduction...........................................................................................4
II. Economic and Financial Backdrop .........................................................4
III. Medium-Term Outlook and Risks .........................................................8
IV. Discussions of Key Policy Challenges ................................................15
A. Dealing with Capital Inflows ................................................................15
B. How Much Room is There to Loosen Monetary Policy? .........................19
C. Deepening Financial Intermediation While Safeguarding Stability .............21
D. Fiscal Policy to Support Sustainable Growth .........................................25
E. Structural Reforms to Improve the Investment Climate ............................27
V. Staff Appraisal ...................................................................................29
Boxes
1. 1997 Vs. 2007: How Far Has Crisis Vulnerability Been Reduced? ...............9
2. Update of Contingent Claims Analysis for Indonesia ...............................10
3. Stress Test Analysis—The Impact of Adverse Macro Shocks on Banks ....14
4. Assessment of Indonesia’s External Competitiveness..............................17
5. Further Improving the Effectiveness of the Inflation-Targeting Framework ...22
Figures
1. Recent Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook. ..................................5
2. Financial Market Performance................................................................7
3. Banking Sector Indicators.....................................................................11
4. Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Developments ...................................16
5. Inflation and Interest Rates ..................................................................20
6. Financial Intermediation .......................................................................................23
Tables
1. The Authorities Response to Recent Fund Policy Advice.........................32
2. Selected Social Indicators, 2001–06 ......................................................33
3. Selected Economic Indicators, 2002–08..................................................34
4. Balance of Payments, 2004–08.............................................................35
5. Monetary Survey, 2004–07....................................................................36
6. Summary of Central Government Operations, 2005–08 ............................37
7. Selected Vulnerability Indicators, 2003–07..............................................38
8. Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework, 2005–12..............................39
9. Progress on the Government’s Structural Policy Agenda.........................40
Appendices
I. Medium-Term Outlook Under Alternative Assumptions and Public
And External Debt Sustainability ..............................................................41